In a marquee WNBA clash set for Wednesday night in Indianapolis, the red-hot Connecticut Sun (22-7, 10-4 away) will face off against the surging Indiana Fever (14-16, 8-5 home) at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, with tip-off scheduled for 7:00 pm ET.
The Sun, currently clinging to a narrow half-game lead over Minnesota for the coveted #2 seed, have already asserted their dominance over the Fever this season, notching three victories against Caitlin Clark’s squad. However, Indiana, which stumbled out of the gate with a 4-10 start, has since found its stride, going 10-6 in its last 16 contests, including an impressive 3-1 mark post-Olympic break.
Sportsbooks have taken note of Indiana’s resurgence, with Wednesday’s betting odds positioning Connecticut as modest 3.5-point road favorites.
The Sun are listed at -170 on the moneyline, while the Fever are pegged at +138. The total points line is set at 163.5.
Connecticut’s formidable defense, yielding a league-best 73.5 PPG, has made them one of the top under bets in the WNBA this season, with a 13-16 O/U record. On the other hand, Indiana leads the league in overs, boasting a 19-11 O/U record, with their games averaging a higher 169.4 PPG.
Sun’s Early Season Dominance Over Fever
If the season concluded today, Connecticut and Indiana would be on a collision course in the first round of the playoffs. Wednesday’s matchup, therefore, carries significant weight for Clark and her Fever, who are 0-3 against the Sun this season. The Sun routed the Fever 92-71 in their first encounter on May 14, eked out a narrow 88-84 victory on May 20, and secured another decisive win, 89-72, on June 10.
Connecticut has maintained its strong form since the Olympic/All-Star break, posting a 4-1 record, including a pivotal road win over the league-leading New York Liberty.
That said, Indiana is no longer the same team that Connecticut dominated earlier in the season. With Clark’s meteoric rise into superstardom, the Fever have gone 3-1 since the season’s resumption, registering wins over formidable opponents like 18-11 Seattle (92-75 home) and 16-15 Phoenix (98-89 home). Their sole loss came on the road against the Western Conference-leading Minnesota (90-80).
Clark, despite shooting just 33.3% from beyond the arc, ranks second on the Fever in scoring at 18.0 PPG, closely trailing Kelsey Mitchell’s 18.2 PPG. She also leads the league in assists, dishing out 8.2 APG. Meanwhile, Aliyah Boston, the top overall pick in 2023, has emerged as a force on the boards, averaging 9.2 RPG, which ranks her sixth in the WNBA.
In their last outing, the Fever capitalized on a dominant first half to dispatch the Atlanta Dream on the road. Indiana built a 14-point halftime lead and held on for an 84-79 victory in a closely contested game.
Wednesday’s player prop bets highlight Clark with a game-high point total of 19.5, followed by Mitchell at 16.5. Connecticut’s DeWanna Bonner has the highest point total for the Sun at 15.5, slightly below her season average of 16.2 PPG.
Aliyah Boston (9.2 RPG) and Connecticut’s Alyssa Thomas (9.1 RPG) both have their rebound totals set at 9.5, with Boston favored to surpass her total (-136) and Thomas projected to stay under (-154).
Connecticut Sun vs Fever
Despite their impressive season, Connecticut remains somewhat undervalued in the WNBA championship odds, tied for third with Minnesota at +525, trailing behind the top favorites New York (+143) and Las Vegas (+285). However, they face an Indiana team that has won and covered three consecutive home games against teams with winning records.
Caesars Sportsbook lists the Sun vs Fever point spread at Connecticut -4 and Indiana at +150 on the moneyline, reflecting a 40% implied win probability.
While the Sun are a well-balanced squad with championship aspirations, the smart money tonight might be on the surging Fever, who are poised to capitalize on their underdog status and continue their upward trajectory.